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September 21st, 2011 | Tags: Chess, Politics does not = Chess
If you can’t necessarily control your pieces,
can you be obliged to move and/or sacrifice when you don’t want to?
If players don’t necessarily follow the same rules,
which can change without everyone knowing,
should you break rules if your opponent does?
Everybody sooner or later
sits down to a banquet of consequences.
Robert Louis Stevenson
Can winning be not playing?
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Does the player who doesn’t make the last mistake usually win?
After the game
the king and pawn go into the same box
Italian proverb
The more captured opposing pieces the less risk
and vice versa
Do some football running backs fake left and go right
to mislead the defense to commit in the wrong direction?
All warfare is based on deception
…when able to attack we must seem unable
when using our forces we must seem inactive
when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far…
when far away, we must make him believe we are near
Sun Tzu
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… a “Monte Carlo” simulation, commonly used in financial planning
estimates the odds of reaching retirement financial goals.
Though these tools typically run through hundreds or thousands of potential market scenarios,
they often assign minuscule odds to extreme market events.
Yet these extreme events seem to be happening more often.
If causes, actions or winners have effects, reactions or losers
and A is caused, allowed, accelerated, held back or prevented
is it better to pre-think what could happen to B, C and D
than not?
The questions about Monte Carlo tools
reflect broader concerns about mathematical models
for gauging portfolio risks
These models were supposed to help quantify and manage the risks
of…complex instruments
If achievement takes less time with a rational plan
can you get farther faster than those without
and vice versa?
But given the events of the past couple of years
it appears that the models often gave big institutions
as well as small investors, a false sense of security
Critics emphasize that the problem isn’t Monte Carlo itself
but the assumptions that go into it
If some financial estimates and hypothetical illustrations
assume perpetual levels of varying data
can probability be manipulated?
Is the present you the only who
who’s going to care for the future you?
Since no standard approach exists
one user might plug in a range of assumptions on interest rates
inflation or volatility that is different from another user
Some industry participants and academics
are pushing for Monte Carlo tools to more clearly illustrate
the scarier scenarios
Eleanor Laise
The Wall Street Journal, May 2, 2009
If there are at least 15,000 professional American Economists
and less than 1% foresaw the financial crisis
and many mathematical based financial prognostications
were relatively useless
which if left in place
could negatively affecting the future
should some try to fix what’s probably broken?
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Yes Weekly: The Business of Elections in Greensboro
http://www.yesweekly.com/article-7396-cover-story.html
Municipal elections are a nearly half-million-dollar industry every odd year in Greensboro. In 2007, more than $450,000 washed through the election system, raised from homebuilders, lawyers and other citizens with a stake in city politics, funneled into the coffers of candidates’ campaign and then drained back out in expenditures for yard signs, newspaper ads, billboard displays, payments to poll workers and rental fees for banquet halls.
…The cost of Greensboro municipal elections has more than tripled since 2001, with the total spent by victorious candidates rising from $73,901 in 2001 to $282,623 in 2007.
…The three at-large seats range from $19,547 to $27,889 each. Some district seats go for more than others. The District 4 seat in the city’s affluent northwest quadrant averages $15,119, while District 3 runs $13,303.
…Our campaign finance shows that the average candidate usually gets about 10 percent of their funds from small donors — meaning people who gave less than $50.
“It’s much more efficient to raise your cash from the big donors,” [‘Josh Glasser of Common Cause of North Carolina told delegates at a Greensboro Neighborhood Congress meeting on Sept. 12, Glasser continued.’] “That means courting interests that often come before the city council and ask for favorable regulations and favorable rules. If you survey the sitting Greensboro City Council, every single member would have to admit that their largest or second largest donation came from someone connected to the real-estate industry or the developers industry.”
…District 3 candidate George Hartzman, who attended the meeting, argued that reform needs to be taken a step further.
“You have these people who are wanting to do business with the government, and they’re paying for their election. And then they get elected and they put a proposal in front of the people that they paid to get elected. And then the people who got elected vote for the thing that the person wants to have passed. It’s a conflict of interest…. Why aren’t we looking at not letting the people who are contributing to elections not being able to do business with the city for X amount of time before and after they give the money? Doesn’t that seem simple? It’s basic ethics.”
Zack Matheny, the incumbent in the District 3 race, was first elected in 2007 in a contest with four other opponents in which Matheny quickly emerged as the leading fundraiser. Matheny raised a total of $46,358 [while serving on Greensboro’s Zoning Commission] and secured 58.9 percent of the vote in the general election. His opponent, Joe Wilson, raised only $13,795.
…Newspapers are not far behind printers in a ranking of sectors that financially profit from campaigns. Victorious Greensboro city council candidates spent a total of $68,615 on printing in 2007, and $61,351 on newspaper advertising. One newspaper, the conservative-leaning Rhinoceros Times, dominates the trade, pulling in $26,030 in 2007, followed by the News & Record, with $17,558; the Carolina Peacemaker, with $8,928; The Greensboro Times, with $3,690; and YES! Weekly, with $3,300.
…Adams, Jones, Johnson and Wells are among the six black elected officials who hold voting privileges on the George C. Simkins Jr. Memorial Political Action Committee, commonly known as the Simkins PAC, or simply the PAC. The PAC sends out a mailing during every election to households in predominantly African-American areas of the city that lists its favored candidates.
A white politician who runs citywide, Groat contributed $1,500 to the Simkins PAC in 2007, on top of her payments to Adams and The Greensboro Times,…the newspaper owned by Rep. Earl Jones… Her total payments to the three entities come to $3,362. The PAC reasoned that “Sandra has completed her first term and will continue to be responsive and open-minded.”
Robbie Perkins, another white politician running citywide, also received the PAC’s endorsement. He paid at total of $1,700 to the PAC and related entities.
Three other white candidates received the PAC’s endorsement. Zack Matheny spent $450 with The Greensboro Times on advertising and contributed $200 to the Simkins PAC.
Candidate spending, 2007
1. Mayor Yvonne Johnson — $97,201
2. Mayor Pro Tem Sandra Anderson Groat — $46,414
3. District 3 Councilman Zack Matheny — $45,868
4. At-large Councilman Robbie Perkins — $38,968
5. District 5 Councilwoman Trudy Wade — $22,595 ($38,379) *
6. At-large Councilwoman Mary Rakestraw — $16,075
7. District 2 Councilwoman Goldie Wells — $7,520
8. District 4 Councilman Mike Barber — $4,982
9. District 1 Councilwoman Dianne Bellamy-Small — $1,300 (estimated)
* Wade paid Republican consultant Bill Burckley $13,784 in January 2008, two months after the election, for mailings. To cover the bill, she raised $11,575, mainly from individuals connected to the real estate, development and building industries, and loaned herself $2,500.
Most expensive races (avg. of victors’ expenditures, 2001-2007)
1. Mayor — $33,091
2. At-large — $19,547-$27,889
3. District 4 — $15,119
4. District 3 — $13,303
5. District 5 — $11,056
6. District 2 — $8,101
7. District 1 — $3,288
Fundraising, 2007 Greensboro municipal election
1. Amount raised Jan. 1-June 30: $10,845
2. Amount raised July 1-Aug. 28: $83,706
3. Amount raised Aug. 29-Sept. 30: $124,616
4. Amount raised Oct. 1-28: $160,194
5. Amount raised Oct. 29-Dec. 31: $84,710
Jordan Green
Yes Weekly, September 16, 2009
http://www.yesweekly.com/article-7396-cover-story.html
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Saying it’s not your fault you crashed the ship into the rock
because the rock was underwater and hidden
nobody could have seen it coming
loses its force when you are navigating in waters
that are known to be rocky
Even if you have the latest sonar
based upon fancy, innovative math
that is supposed to detect the rock before you hit it
and even if regulators were supposed to clearly map and mark all danger
if you hit it anyway
there’s a reason why captains are expected to go down with
or at best be the last ones off – the ship
It ensures they’ll do all they can to avoid hitting it in the first place
Mark Thoma
“The Professionals are not being Held Accountable”
Economists View
Don’t say you can if you can’t
say you’re going to and not
be a very good bad example
think you know what you don’t
do what you don’t understand
sacrifice future unhappiness
for an unnecessarily pleasant present
underestimate irrationality
offend many to benefit few
and not hold yourself and others accountable
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Branson warns that oil crunch: Energy crisis threatens to be more serious than credit crunch
Sir Richard Branson and fellow leading businessmen will warn ministers this week that the world is running out of oil and faces an oil crunch within five years.
…Other British executives who will support the warning include Ian Marchant, chief executive of Scottish and Southern Energy group, and Brian Souter, chief executive of transport operator Stagecoach.
Their call for urgent government action comes amid a wider debate on the issue and follows allegations by insiders at the International Energy Agency that the organization had deliberately underplayed the threat of so-called “peak oil” to avoid panic on the stock markets.
…The issue came up at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos where Thierry Desmarest, chief executive of the Total oil company in France, also broke ranks. The world could struggle to produce more than 95m barrels of oil a day in future, he said – 10% above present levels. “The problem of peak oil remains.”
Chris Skrebowski, an independent oil consultant who prepared parts of the peak oil report for Branson and others, said that only recession is holding back a crisis…Skrebowski believes that Britain is particularly vulnerable because it has gone from being a net exporter of oil, gas and coal to being an importer, and is becoming increasingly exposed to competition for supplies.
The question of peak oil came to centre stage last November when a whistleblower told the Guardian the figures provided by the IEA – and used by the UK and US governments for much of their planning scenarios – were inaccurate.
“The IEA in 2005 was predicting that oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030, although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year,” said the IEA source. “The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today’s number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.”
Terry Macalister
guardian.co.uk
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July 3rd, 2011 | Tags: Peak, Risk and Return
The world consumes two barrels of oil for every barrel discovered.
…is this something you should be worried about?
Advertisement


Via The Oil Drum

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July 1st, 2011 | Tags: Peak
Two fundamentally different stories have been enacted
…during the lifetime of man.
One began… some two or three million years ago by the Leavers,
and is still being enacted by them today, as successfully as ever.
The other began to be enacted here some ten or twelve thousand years ago
by the Takers,
and is apparently about to end in catastrophe.
Ishmael, a wise fictional gorilla
We are in the first age since the dawn of civilization
in which people have dared to think it practicable
to make the benefits of civilization available to the whole human race.
Arnold Toynbee
The greatest shortcoming of the human race
is our inability to understand the exponential function.
Dr Albert Bartlett
The major advances in civilization
are processes which all but wreck the societies in which they occur.
Alfred North Whitehead
All progress
is based upon the universal innate desire on the part of every organism
to live beyond its income.
Samuel Butler
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We have lent a huge amount of money to the US
so of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets
Frankly speaking, I do have some worries
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao
US Insists China Fears Over Debt Unfounded
The Wall Street Journal
If Executive Order 6102, signed on April 5, 1933
let the Federal Reserve confiscate gold for $20.67 per troy ounce
and the government raised the price to $35 not long after
did the US government devalue the dollar by 41%?
The Gold Reserve Act of 1934…
changed the value of the dollar in gold
from $20.67 to $35 per ounce
This price remained until August 15, 1971
when President Richard Nixon
announced that the United States
would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value
thus abandoning the gold standard for foreign exchange
Wikipedia
Have the leaders of most emerging economies
essentially been stealing their citizens’ savings
by lending money to developed economies
to keep currency exchange rates relatively low
to encourage more sales of manufactured goods?
If global central bank foreign exchange reserves more than tripled
as the US dollar fell by ~50% since 2000
did Americans buy manufactured goods from foreign nations
with IOUs that are now worth about half as much?
Who is the largest holder of US Treasury debt?
What could happen
if a generation of underemployed, underpaid
educated and indebted young adults
become disillusioned by their elders’ financial mismanagement
and seek to identify and punish those responsible?
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US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015
…”By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,” says the [Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command]…
It adds: “While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.”
The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with “an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments.”
…The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains confident that there is no short-term risk of oil shortages but privately some senior officials have admitted there is considerable disagreement internally about this upbeat stance.
Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army because it is believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world.
…Glen Sweetnam, main oil adviser to the Obama administration, admitted that “a chance exists that we may experience a decline” of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 if the investment was not forthcoming.
…The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what can happen on occasions when there is serious economic upheaval. “One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest,” it points out.
Terry Macalister
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 11 April 2010
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